If you’re shopping for a home in Tucson, Marana, Oro Valley, Sahuarita, or Vail this fall, the market is calmer than it was a few years ago. Tucson home prices are roughly flat to slightly down from a year ago, buyers have more listings to choose from, and many sellers are open to negotiating. Mortgage rates are higher than last fall, though, so your monthly payment matters. Here’s the latest data, a sample payment at today’s median, and an Arizona property tax rule every owner-occupant should know.
Tucson home prices right now
Here are three views of the Tucson market:
- Median sale price: Redfin reports a median sale price of $315,850 for the three months ending September 2026, down 1.3% from the same period last year. The median price per square foot was $201, down 4.3%.
- Typical home value: The Zillow Home Value Index puts the typical Tucson home value at $318,760, down 1.9% over the past year (updated September 30, 2026).
- Listing vs. sold prices: Realtor.com’s October 2026 Tucson snapshot shows a median listing price of $358,500 (down 3.11% year over year) and a median sold price of $360,000 (up 2.86%). Asking prices have eased a bit, while the homes that actually close are holding their value.
Across all of Pima County, Redfin shows a median sale price of $369,174 for the three months ending September 2026, up 2.5% year over year, with a median of 69 days on market (down from 74 a year earlier).
Marana, Oro Valley, Sahuarita, and Vail
All four figures below come from Realtor.com’s October 2026 market pages:
- Marana: Realtor.com shows a median listing price of $472,000 (about flat, up 0.05%) and a median sold price of $410,000 (up 3.21%), with 1,065 active listings (up 4.97%) and a median of 59 days on market.
- Oro Valley: Realtor.com shows a median listing price of $582,248 (up 5.44%) but a median sold price of $542,000 (down 2.78%). Inventory is tighter here, with 440 active listings (down 6.62%), and homes sold about 1.9% below asking on average.
- Sahuarita: Realtor.com shows a median listing price of $357,450 (up 3.01%) and a median sold price of $343,500 (up 1.03%), with 554 active listings (down 8.92%).
- Vail: Realtor.com shows a median listing price of $411,500 (down 2.95%) and a median sold price of $415,900 (up 6.94%), with homes taking a median of 71 days to sell.
The suburbs cost more than the city, and each is moving differently. In Oro Valley, asking prices are up while closed prices are down, a sign of room to negotiate on overpriced homes.
How fast homes are selling (and how much room to negotiate)
This is where buyers have gained ground:
- Days on market: Redfin says Tucson homes sold after a median of 66 days over the three months ending September 2026, compared with 62 days a year earlier. Sales slowed too: 1,152 homes sold in September, down from 1,278.
- Sale-to-list price: Redfin puts Tucson’s September sale-to-list ratio at 98.4%. Redfin also reports that 36.9% of homes had a price drop, while 19.9% sold above list price. Realtor.com says Tucson homes sold for about 1.22% below asking on average in October 2026.
- Inventory: Realtor.com counts 4,925 active listings in Tucson, up 3.21% from a year ago, and calls Tucson a balanced market for October 2026.
Well-priced homes in good shape still sell close to asking. But with more than a third of listings cutting their price, asking for seller-paid closing costs, repairs, or a rate buydown is reasonable, especially on homes that have sat for a while.
Mortgage rates and what a payment looks like
According to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average 30-year fixed rate was 7.40% as of October 15, 2026, unchanged from the prior week. A year ago it averaged 6.27%. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.71%.
Here’s a simple example using those published figures (our own math, principal and interest only):
- Home price: $315,850 (Redfin’s Tucson median)
- 20% down payment: about $63,170
- Loan amount: about $252,680
- Principal and interest at 7.40% for 30 years: about $1,750 per month
- The same loan at last year’s 6.27% average: about $1,559 per month, roughly $190 less
Your actual payment will also include property taxes, insurance, and any HOA dues, and your rate depends on your credit, loan type, and down payment. That’s where the next section comes in.
Buyer tip: make sure your Tucson home is classified as a primary residence
Arizona sorts residential property into legal classes. Under A.R.S. 42-12003, Class 3 is residential property occupied by the owner as their primary residence (or by a qualifying relative as theirs). Homes that are rentals or second homes go in Class 4. Both classes use a 10% assessment ratio (A.R.S. 42-15003), so the real difference is in the tax breaks that only primary residences get:
- Homeowner rebate on school taxes: Under A.R.S. 15-972, the state pays part of the primary school district property tax on Class 3 homes. The reduction on any one parcel is capped at $600 per year. The Pima County Assessor’s new homebuyer guide notes that this “Primary Tax Reduction is Applied to Class 3 Primary Residence Properties.”
- The 1% cap: Article IX, Section 18 of the Arizona Constitution limits most primary property taxes on residential property to 1% of its limited value, and A.R.S. 15-972 has the county apply a credit when a primary residence’s bill would go over that cap. Voter-approved bonds, budget overrides, and special districts aren’t included in the cap.
- Value increases are limited: The Pima County Assessor’s guide explains that the Limited Property Value used to calculate your taxes “can only increase 5% annually” unless the property changes significantly.
How to make sure it’s classified correctly
Under A.R.S. 42-12053, primary residence status is judged by things like how long you live there each year, your voting precinct, your driver license address, and where your vehicles are registered. So update those after you move in. The Pima County Assessor uses an Affidavit for Primary Residence Classification to verify use, and the form points out that you can have only one primary residence, no matter how many homes you own. If the home you’re buying was a rental, confirm the classification gets updated. You can reach the Assessor’s classification team at (520) 724-8630 or ASRClsAudit@pima.gov.
Buying a rental instead? A.R.S. 33-1902 requires owners to register residential rentals with the county assessor. On a newly purchased rental, skipping that can mean a $1,000 civil penalty plus $100 a month.
Frequently asked questions
Are Tucson home prices going down?
Slightly, in the city itself. Redfin’s median sale price is down 1.3% year over year, and Zillow’s typical home value is down 1.9% (both through September 2026). Pima County as a whole is up 2.5% by Redfin’s measure, so it’s more of a flat market than a falling one.
Is Tucson a buyer’s market right now?
Realtor.com calls Tucson a balanced market for October 2026, with homes selling about 1% below asking and 4,925 active listings. Redfin rates it “somewhat competitive.”
When are Pima County property taxes due?
According to the Pima County Assessor, bills over $100 are paid in two halves. The first half is due October 1 and becomes delinquent after 5:00 PM on November 1. The second half is due March 1 and becomes delinquent after 5:00 PM on May 1. Many buyers pay through a lender’s escrow account.
Can I claim two homes as my primary residence in Arizona?
No. The Pima County Assessor’s affidavit says you can have only one primary residence no matter how many homes you own. Vacation homes and homes leased to someone other than a qualifying relative don’t qualify.
Buying or selling in Tucson?
Axiom Properties helps buyers, sellers, and investors across Tucson, St. George, and Southeastern Idaho. If you’d like a local read on a neighborhood, help deciding on a fair offer, or an estimate of your full monthly cost, reach out to our team.
This article is general information, not financial, tax, or legal advice. Market data changes monthly, and property tax rules can change, so confirm details with your lender, the Pima County Assessor, or a tax professional.
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